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Tropical Storm BLANCA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 300 AM MDT MON JUN 08 2015 The aerial coverage of Blanca's deep convection is decreasing due to cold waters and southerly shear of 15 to 20 kt. The shear is also resulting in an increasing separation between the low- and mid-level circulations. The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. The above-mentioned negative factors and land interaction should lead to the demise of Blanca in the next day or so, with the cyclone forecast to become a depression in 24 hours and dissipate by 36 hours. The decoupling of the low-level circulation has increased the uncertainty in the center location, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 345/13. A general north-northwestward motion is expected to continue until Blanca dissipates as the cyclone moves between a mid-level high to the east and a deep-layer low to the west. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Moisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern United States on Tuesday. For more information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 23.8N 111.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 25.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 27.7N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN