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Hurricane BLANCA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

The satellite presentation of Blanca continues to deteriorate, with
the eye no longer visible and the coverage and intensity of deep
convection diminishing.  The current intensity is set at 80 kt which
is a blend of Dvorak T and Current Intensity numbers.  An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a good estimate of the
intensity in a few hours.  Under the influence of progressively
cooler sea surface temperatures, southerly vertical shear, and the
terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the cyclone should
continue to weaken quickly.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the intensity model consensus and calls for the system to
weaken to a tropical storm within 12 to 24 hours.  Blanca will
likely degenerate to a remnant low within a couple of days.

The initial motion estimate, 340/10 kt, is about the same as in the
previous advisory.  Blanca should continue to move along the western
periphery of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation.  The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
also very close to the dynamical model consensus.

Moisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States later this week.
For more information, please see products from your local National
Weather Service office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 20.5N 111.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 22.2N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 24.5N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 26.7N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 28.7N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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