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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 300 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015 Blanca has strengthened tonight, with infrared imagery showing a better defined eye surrounded by a symmetric convective ring with cloud top temperatures colder than -70C. The 0600Z Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T6.0/115 kt, and the initial intensity has been conservatively set to 105 kt for this advisory, assuming that the wind field has not yet caught up to the rapidly improving satellite presentation. The environment appears conducive for Blanca to at least maintain its intensity during the next 12 to 18 hours, with weakening expected to begin by 24 hours as the cyclone reaches cooler waters. A quicker rate of weakening is forecast after 24 hours due to moderate shear and even cooler SSTs. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward, especially in the first 36 hours, to account for the higher initial intensity. This results in the official forecast now showing Blanca weakening to just below hurricane intensity in 48 hours as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After landfall, Blanca should weaken to a depression and then dissipate over the high terrain of the peninsula in about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is 320/10. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Blanca should continue moving northwestward today and then turn north-northwestward under the influence of a mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and Texas and an approaching trough to the west of the hurricane. The guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which is near the latest multi-model consensus TVCE. Based on the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, a hurricane watch from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe, and tropical storm watches farther north. Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 108.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.3N 110.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.1N 110.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN