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Hurricane BLANCA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
300 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

Blanca has strengthened tonight, with infrared imagery showing a
better defined eye surrounded by a symmetric convective ring with
cloud top temperatures colder than -70C.  The 0600Z Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB were both T6.0/115 kt, and the initial intensity
has been conservatively set to 105 kt for this advisory, assuming
that the wind field has not yet caught up to the rapidly improving
satellite presentation.  The environment appears conducive for
Blanca to at least maintain its intensity during the next 12 to 18
hours, with weakening expected to begin by 24 hours as the cyclone
reaches cooler waters.  A quicker rate of weakening is forecast
after 24 hours due to moderate shear and even cooler SSTs.  The NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted upward, especially in the first
36 hours, to account for the higher initial intensity.  This results
in the official forecast now showing Blanca weakening to just below
hurricane intensity in 48 hours as it approaches the Baja California
peninsula.  After landfall, Blanca should weaken to a depression and
then dissipate over the high terrain of the peninsula in about 4
days.

The initial motion estimate is 320/10.  The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged, as Blanca should continue moving northwestward
today and then turn north-northwestward under the influence of a
mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and Texas and an
approaching trough to the west of the hurricane.  The guidance
remains in good agreement on this scenario, and only minor
adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which is near the
latest multi-model consensus TVCE.

Based on the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has issued
a tropical storm warning for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula, a hurricane watch from Cabo San Lucas to
Santa Fe, and tropical storm watches farther north.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 16.9N 108.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 19.3N 110.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 21.1N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 26.8N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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