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HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
400 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

The hurricane has continued to weaken as it moves slowly over its
own cold wake. Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing, and the current
estimate of the initial intensity is 85 kt, which could be generous.
Most of the deep convection has spread out and is concentrated in
few bands well removed from the center.  However, the hurricane
still has the chance to restrengthen as soon as it moves
away from the area where the upwelling has occurred. The NHC
forecast is again consistent with the SHIPS intensity guidance,
and allows some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.
Thereafter, increasing shear and cool waters should induce gradual
weakening as Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.

Blanca is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 5 knots.
The subtropical ridge which has been blocking the motion of the
cyclone is already moving eastward, and most likely the hurricane
will continue northwestward or north-northwestward with some
increase of forward speed around the periphery of the ridge. The NHC
forecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the
consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models. However, it
remains on the left side of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 12.8N 105.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 13.7N 106.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 15.3N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 16.7N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 18.2N 109.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 24.0N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 26.8N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

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