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Hurricane BLANCA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Blanca continues to strengthen, and although there are no signs of
an eye yet in geostationary imagery, a low- to mid-level eye was
evident on an SSMIS pass from 1413Z.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and
SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, and Blanca has been upgraded to a hurricane
for this advisory.  Blanca has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12
hours and appears to be taking advantage of the favorable
environment. There isn't much new to say about the intensity
forecast, as very low shear and warm, deep ocean waters should
support rapid strengthening over the next couple of days.  The NHC
forecast follows this trend, forecasting Blanca to be a major
hurricane in about 24 hours and peak near 120 kt in 2 to 3 days,
and this could be conservative.  After 72 hours, the cyclone should
begin weakening as it moves over much cooler waters and the shear
increases.  The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models
through the period.

The tropical cyclone is still stationary, and little net motion is
expected for the next 36 hours while steering currents remain weak.
After that time, a ridge will build over Mexico to the northeast of
Blanca, which should impart a northwestward track on days 2 and 3,
with the cyclone turning more toward the north-northwest at days 4
and 5.  The spread of the track guidance increases markedly by day
5.  The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF, and GFDL are faster and farther to the
right, showing a track into the Gulf of California.  On the other
side of the guidance, the ECMWF and especially the UKMET are much
slower and farther to the left, keeping the center of Blanca
southwest of the Baja California peninsula.  The NHC forecast has
been adjusted a little to the east at days 4 and 5 and now is very
close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.  Note that it is too soon
to determine what impacts Blanca will have on the Baja California
peninsula, as 5-day track forecast errors average about 170 miles in
the east Pacific.

Blanca marks the earliest formation of the second hurricane in the
eastern North Pacific basin since reliable records began in 1971.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.1N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 12.9N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 14.0N 105.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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