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ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015 Blanca continues to strengthen, and although there are no signs of an eye yet in geostationary imagery, a low- to mid-level eye was evident on an SSMIS pass from 1413Z. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T4.0/65 kt, and Blanca has been upgraded to a hurricane for this advisory. Blanca has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12 hours and appears to be taking advantage of the favorable environment. There isn't much new to say about the intensity forecast, as very low shear and warm, deep ocean waters should support rapid strengthening over the next couple of days. The NHC forecast follows this trend, forecasting Blanca to be a major hurricane in about 24 hours and peak near 120 kt in 2 to 3 days, and this could be conservative. After 72 hours, the cyclone should begin weakening as it moves over much cooler waters and the shear increases. The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models through the period. The tropical cyclone is still stationary, and little net motion is expected for the next 36 hours while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a ridge will build over Mexico to the northeast of Blanca, which should impart a northwestward track on days 2 and 3, with the cyclone turning more toward the north-northwest at days 4 and 5. The spread of the track guidance increases markedly by day 5. The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF, and GFDL are faster and farther to the right, showing a track into the Gulf of California. On the other side of the guidance, the ECMWF and especially the UKMET are much slower and farther to the left, keeping the center of Blanca southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast has been adjusted a little to the east at days 4 and 5 and now is very close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Note that it is too soon to determine what impacts Blanca will have on the Baja California peninsula, as 5-day track forecast errors average about 170 miles in the east Pacific. Blanca marks the earliest formation of the second hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin since reliable records began in 1971. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.1N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 12.9N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.0N 105.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan NNNN