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HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2015
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 11(22)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15)
HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17)
NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14)
NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14)
TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21)
ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18)
DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 4(25)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 2(21)
NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 2(22)
NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 3(24)
WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) 1(33)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) 1(24)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 9(11) 7(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
GREAT EXUMA 34 80 16(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GREAT EXUMA 50 21 29(50) 2(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
GREAT EXUMA 64 9 19(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SAN SALVADOR 50 38 50(88) 3(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92)
SAN SALVADOR 64 14 49(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MAYAGUANA 50 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
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