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BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR RUM CAY AND
SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 74.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Central Bahamas
* Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* The Acklins, Crooked Island, and Mayaguana in the southeastern
Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bimini
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Remainder of the southeastern Bahamas including the Turks and
Caicos Islands
* Andros Island
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Joaquin. A
Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 74.8 West.  Joaquin is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general
motion should continue this afternoon.  A turn toward the northeast
is expected tonight with an increase in forward speed.  On the
forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will
continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the Bahamas
tonight and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to
begin on Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches).  A Bahamas Meteorology Department
station on San Salvador recently reported a pressure of 969.9 mb
(28.63 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to continue across portions
of the central Bahamas through today. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions are expected over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
today. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of eastern Cuba
for a few more hours.

STORM SURGE:  A very dangerous and life-threatening storm surge will
raise water levels by as much as 6 to 12 feet above normal tide
levels in the central Bahamas in areas of onshore flow.  A storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels is expected in the
remainder of the Bahamas within the hurricane warning area.  Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

RAINFALL:  Joaquin is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 12 to 18 inches over the central Bahamas with isolated maximum
amounts of 25 inches. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are
expected over the southeastern Bahamas, with 2 to 4 inches over the
northwestern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands. This rainfall could result in
life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells generated by Joaquin will affect portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days. Swells have begun to affect
portions of the southeastern coast of the United States and will
spread northward along the east coast of the United States through
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Even though Joaquin is expected to
pass well east of the coast of the United States, a prolonged
period of elevated water levels and large waves will affect the
mid-Atlantic region, causing significant beach and dune erosion with
moderate coastal flooding likely. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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