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HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015

The satellite cloud pattern of Joaquin, especially the inner-core
convection, has continued to erode during the past several hours.
The Bermuda radar also indicates a very ragged-looking banded eye
pattern. The initial intensity has been decreased to 85 kt for this
advisory based on some dropsonde data from a WB-57 research
aircraft that is part of the NASA Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Experiment.

Joaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 015/12 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Joaquin is expected to move toward the north-northeast tonight and
and turn toward the northeast on Monday as the cyclone moves around
the western periphery of a ridge located to its east. By days 2-5,
the hurricane should accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone
moves into the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory
track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model
guidance envelope.

Joaquin should continue to steadily weaken during the next 48 hours
or so, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone on
days 3-5 as the cyclone moves over the cold waters of the far north
Atlantic where the vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. The
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the
consensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance from
the Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5 when the cyclone is
forecast to be an extratropical low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 32.2N  66.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 33.8N  65.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 35.6N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 37.3N  61.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 39.2N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 42.5N  42.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1800Z 46.1N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1800Z 49.7N  18.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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