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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015

Shortwave and enhanced BD-Curve infrared imagery show little change
in the depression's cloud pattern this morning.  Recently,
however, a few bursts of deep convection are beginning to develop
near the surface center.  Subjective intensity estimates remain
unchanged from the previous advisory as does the initial intensity
of 30 kt. UW-CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model both indicate
10-20 kt of northwesterly shear generated by a high amplitude
upper-level ridge extending northward over the western Atlantic from
the western Caribbean. Large-scale models show this upper-wind
pattern persisting through day 3, which should inhibit any
significant strengthening.  Afterward, increasing southwesterly
shear is expected to spread over the eastern seaboard and extreme
western Atlantic waters in response to a deep-layer mid-latitude
trough approaching from the west.  Despite a rather harsh forecast
upper-wind environment, the IVCN intensity consensus model shows
slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours.  Beyond
the 96 hour period, the global models indicate either dissipation or
the cyclone quickly becoming absorbed by the aforementioned
baroclinic system.  The official forecast is based on the IVCN
consensus and indicates the cyclone merging with the frontal system
in 5 days.

The depression's center has been a bit difficult to find this
morning, and has been moving erratically, drifting westward, or
275/2 kt.  The cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest
later today and continue in this general direction for a couple
of days due to high pressure extending over the western
Atlantic.  After that time, a northward turn is forecast with an
increase in forward speed around day 3 in response to the
above mentioned frontal system approaching the east coast of the
U.S.  The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the left of the
previous forecast and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 27.4N  68.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 27.6N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 28.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 28.5N  70.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 29.2N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 31.2N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 36.2N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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