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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015
...ERIKA MOVING INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH HEAVY RAINS AND
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in eastern and central Cuba, as well as the
southern Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys, should monitor the
progress of Erika. Additional watches and warnings could be
needed for these areas on Saturday after Erika moves off of
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
estimated near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 71.2 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest or northwest is expected tonight, with this motion
continuing with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. On the
forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic and Haiti during the next several hours, and be near the
southeastern Bahamas or eastern Cuba on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Erika is
forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Saturday. There is
a possibility that Erika could dissipate to a trough of low
pressure during or after its passage over Hispaniola.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center. Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic
recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure, based on observations from
the Dominican Republic, is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently spreading across
portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to spread across Haiti this evening, the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas this evening and tonight, and
the central Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over eastern Cuba on Saturday and in the northwestern
Bahamas by Saturday night.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across
portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas
through Saturday. An additional 1 to 2 inches is expected for
Puerto Rico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.