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Tropical Storm VANCE


ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014               
2100 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
SAN BLAS       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  25(32)   3(35)   X(35)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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