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Hurricane VANCE


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

...VANCE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 109.6W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON MONDAY AT A SLOWER RATE OF FORWARD
SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  VANCE MAY INTENSIFY SOME THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
IN A DAY OR TWO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...100 AM PST.

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FORECASTER LANDSEA

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