Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Ragged convection has persisted near the center of the depression
since the previous advisory, and a 1748 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed
still showed a well-defined low-level circulation and three 28-kt
surface wind vectors in the southwestern  quadrant. Therefore, an
initial intensity of 30 kt is being maintained for this advisory,
which is supported by a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is toward the southeast or 120/06 kt.
There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The
depression is expected to gradually turn toward the east over the
next 12-24 hours as the small cyclone comes under the influence of
increasing westerly flow on the south side of Hurricane Odile, and
be absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile by 72 hours. The
official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track
and is close to the consensus model TCVE.

Northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to
steadily increase throughout the forecast period owing to the strong
outflow from Hurricane Odile. As a result, the depression is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low during the next 24 hours.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory
and the ICON consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 15.5N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 15.7N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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