Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

CORRECTED SPELLING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH.

The center of the tropical cyclone is very difficult to find on
geostationary images, but an SSMI image from 1056 UTC indicated
that it continued to be located near the northeastern edge of the
main area of deep convection.  However, first-light visible
pictures suggest that the low-level circulation is poorly defined.
The current intensity estimate is 30 kt which is consistent with the
latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, although this may be
generous.  The unfavorable influence of the much larger circulation
of Tropical Storm Odile, centered about 800 n mi to the east of the
depression, should prevent significant strengthening.  As in our
previous forecast reasoning, it is expected that the depression will
dissipate in a few days, if not sooner, by being absorbed by
Odile. This is similar to the previous NHC forecast.

Given the difficulty in fixing the center, the initial motion
estimate is a rather uncertain 360/2 kt.  An eastward motion is
likely to commence within a day or so while the tropical cyclone
begins to become entrained into Odile's circulation.  Some increase
in forward speed is likely in a couple of days as Odile exerts an
increasing influence on the steering of the depression.  The latest
official forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast
tracks, with the former showing a more eastward motion and the
latter significantly slower.  This is somewhat slower than the
previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 16.6N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 16.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 16.2N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 15.0N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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