Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

Earlier microwave imagery indicated that the low-level center of
the depression was located near the northern edge of the deep
convection.  The convection itself is not all that organized, and
the cloud tops have recently been warming.  The system remains a
30-kt depression based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The
vertical shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase out of
the east during the next 12-24 hours, which should prevent
strengthening during the next couple of days.  The depression is
likely to become absorbed by the larger circulation of Tropical
Storm Odile, and the NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by
day 3.

The initial motion is northward, or 360/5 kt.  Low clouds to the
east of the depression are already being pulled eastward into
Odile's circulation, and the depression is also likely to be pulled
northeastward and eastward during the next 24 hours.  The available
track models are showing a faster eastward motion on this cycle, and
the updated NHC forecast is adjusted eastward near the multi-model
consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 16.6N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 16.7N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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