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Hurricane ODILE


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014

...ODILE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSE SERIOUS THREATS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 111.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN JOSE DE LAS
PALOMAS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF BAHIA DE LOS
ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. ODILE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECREASING FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ODILE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS...AND OVER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN
MAINLAND MEXICO THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN
INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE
EVEN GREATER.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.  NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND SONORA. A 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.72 INCHES...146 MM...HAS BEEN REPORTED AT LA PAZ
MEXICO SO FAR.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

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