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Hurricane ODILE


200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Odile is continuing to intensify this afternoon with visible
satellite pictures showing an intermittent eye.  The latest
intensity estimates are between 77-84 kt, and 80 kt is chosen as
the initial wind speed.  With the hurricane moving over very warm
waters within light shear for the next day or so, steady or rapid
intensification seems likely.  Despite the seemingly favorable
environment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance
brings Odile to a major hurricane.  However, the SHIPS rapid
intensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30
kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours.  After
considering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest
NHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the
first 24 hours, and could still be too low.  After that time, Odile
is forecast to weaken by late Monday since it is forecast to
pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with cooler waters also expected
after that time.  The NHC forecast philosophy is the same as the
previous one, using a blend of the previous interpolated NHC
prediction and the intensity consensus.

After moving erratically earlier today, Odile appears to be
moving more steadily to the northwest at about 5 kt.  The hurricane
should accelerate northwestward by late today due to a ridge
strengthening over the southern United States.  Guidance has shifted
toward the northeast, closer to Baja California Sur, with generally
less ridging predicted over northwestern Mexico.  The new forecast
is adjusted in that direction, roughly 30 n mi to the north of the
previous forecast during Odile's closest approach to Baja California
Sur, and is close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and
the ECMWF model.  The long-term forecast is also adjusted eastward
closer to Baja California, reflecting the latest consensus aids.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for
portions of Baja California Sur.  A hurricane warning could be
issued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends
in the model guidance continue.

Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
week.   This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
flash flooding in those areas.  Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.


INIT  13/2100Z 17.0N 106.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

Forecaster Blake