Tropical Storm ODILE

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TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014

Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during the
past few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization
of the low-level center.  Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt
from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB.  Using a blend of these estimates
yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical
Storm Odile.

Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several
hours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift
is forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in
weak steering currents.  In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated
to feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and
northeast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace
to the northwest.  Although the models are in fair agreement on
this overall scenario, the big question is how close to the
southwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get.  The
ECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and
bring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,
which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile
well offshore.  The NHC track forecast is again between these
solutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in
3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the
forecast period.

Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days
while the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist
environment, and over very warm 30 C water.  The only limiting
factor could be land interaction.  The NHC intensity forecast shows
a slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but
is lower than the SHIPS guidance.

A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of
southwestern Mexico later today.  Regardless, locally heavy rains
are possible across that area later this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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