Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072014
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014
The low-level center of the cyclone is located to the west of the
convection due to westerly wind shear. The cloud pattern is not
well organized with the outflow very limited at this time.
T-numbers are still 2.5 on the Dvorak scale, and a recent
scatterometer overpass still indicates 35-40 kt winds. The initial
intensity is thus kept at 40 knots. Global models as well as
statistical guidance continue to forecast an unfavorable environment
near the cyclone. In addition, the cyclone is heading to an area of
lower sea surface temperatures. This should result in gradual
weakening during the next few days.
Genevieve has slowed down a little bit and is now moving westward at
6 knots. An eastward-moving trough in the westerlies is weakening
the subtropical ride north of the cyclone, and consequently, the
cyclone is forecast to decrease in forward speed during the next day
or so. The ridge is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves
out, and this pattern will keep Genevieve on a general west to
west-northwest track for the next 5 days. During the latter portion
of the forecast, the cyclone will likely become a shallow
post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by the low-level flow. The
official forecast continues very close to the multi-model consensus
guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/2100Z 12.2N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 12.3N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 12.5N 137.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 12.9N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 13.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
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