Hurricane CRISTINA
ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014
800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014
Cristina appears to be in the latter stages of an eyewall
replacement. A small part of the original eyewall is surrounded by
an elongated spiral band, and the eye, as seen in microwave images,
has expanded to 25-30 n mi wide. The satellite intensity estimates
are still suggesting an overall downward trend, and the initial
intensity is lowered to 85 kt based on a blend of the Final-T and
Current Intensity numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT.
Cristina is approaching a tight sea surface temperature gradient,
and the cyclone probably has another 36 hours or so before it moves
over water colder than 26C. In addition, upper-level winds are
likely to become more hostile in about 24 hours with the approach
of a sharp upper-level trough from the west. Therefore, it
is unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall
replacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the
entire forecast period. The new NHC forecast is mainly an update of
the previous one and is close to the intensity consensus during the
first 24 hours and then a bit lower between 36-72 hours.
A mid-level ridge located over northwestern Mexico continues to
steer Cristina northwestward at about 7 kt. This motion should
continue for another 24 hours while the cyclone remains a hurricane
or strong tropical storm. The weakening system is then expected to
turn west-northwestward by 36 hours. The track guidance once again
shifted a little to the north on this advisory cycle, and the new
NHC track forecast is also moved in that direction for much of the
forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 18.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 20.1N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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