Hurricane ARTHUR

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13B
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
300 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

...EYE OF ARTHUR MOVING NEAR MAINLAND DARE COUNTY AND NORTHERN
PAMLICO SOUND...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER BANKS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 75.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF MANTEO NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9
WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35
KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ARTHUR WILL
PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY
AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM. A WEATHERFLOW STATION LOCATED NEAR AVON RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 73 MPH...117 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
84 MPH...135 KM/H. A U.S. COAST GUARD STATION JUST WEST OF CAPE
HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 89 MPH...145 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING NORTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW
ENGLAND WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...1
TO 3 FT
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT

COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD.

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE
SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE
ISLAND.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/LANDSEA

NNNN