Tropical Storm ARTHUR

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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
2100 UTC WED JUL 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY...FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING CHEASEPEAKE BAY...AND
FOR WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTHWARD TO DUCK
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
*  NORTH OF DUCK TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...NOT INCLUDING
CHEASEPEAKE BAY
*  WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND


A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  79.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N  79.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  79.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.7N  79.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.4N  78.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.2N  72.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 43.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 49.0N  59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 53.0N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N  79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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