Tropical Storm ARTHUR

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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
1500 UTC WED JUL 02 2014

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET
NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
PAMLICO AND EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/
VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  ANY
DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE
FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  79.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  79.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  79.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 30.1N  78.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.5N  76.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 42.0N  66.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 47.0N  61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 51.5N  53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N  79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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