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Hurricane RAYMOND


ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 22 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       2       2       2
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       2       5       9      12      18
TROPICAL STORM   2      17      37      49      61      66      69
HURRICANE       98      83      61      46      28      20      12
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       46      57      43      34      24      17      11
HUR CAT 2       46      19      13       9       4       3       1
HUR CAT 3        6       6       4       3       1       X       X
HUR CAT 4        1       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   85KT    80KT    75KT    70KT    65KT    65KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
L CARDENAS     34 12  13(25)   4(29)   2(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
L CARDENAS     50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34 24   6(30)   2(32)   2(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
ACAPULCO       34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
P MALDONADO    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
 
CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
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