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Tropical Depression RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 30 2013
 
RAYMOND HAS DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW
LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
SMALL AREA DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME QUITE ELONGATED...AND
POSSIBLY LOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE EARLIER CENTER ESTIMATES. 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE MOST RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. 
STRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR
MAKE IT UNLIKELY THAT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL RETURN....AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.  THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/5.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT
MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 19.6N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 20.1N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  31/0600Z 20.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  31/1800Z 20.8N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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