Tropical Storm RAYMOND

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TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
 
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS
TRANSITION WELL...WITH RAYMOND BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY.  A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
BROUGHT DOWN TO 50 KT...ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. 
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THAT TIME...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE LOW
ENOUGH GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITION OF THE STORM. 
THEREAFTER...SOME RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE DUE TO DECREASING
SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS AN INCREASING TREND IN THE DAYS 3-5 PERIOD...ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  

BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 255/7.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AFTER DAY 3...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DELAYING
THIS TURN A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...PROBABLY DUE TO MORE
SEPARATION BETWEEN RAYMOND AND THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WERE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 15.4N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.1N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 14.4N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 13.8N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 14.2N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 16.0N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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