Tropical Depression OCTAVE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
 
MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED
FROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO
INDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL
LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY
WEDNESDAY.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.
GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE
MOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL
DISSIPATION.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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