Tropical Depression NARDA
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARDA CONTINUES TO
CLING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR
AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NARDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER
TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.
THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 240/02...AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS NARDA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 16.4N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/0600Z 15.6N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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