Tropical Storm NARDA
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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013
NARDA IS QUICKLY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NADA. SATELLITE PICTURES
SHOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND
SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 35 KT...WHICH COULD BE
GENEROUS. DRY AIR ALOFT...INCREASING WIND SHEAR...AND MARGINAL
SSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NARDA. THE NHC WIND FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF
IT BECOMING A REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN ADVANCED SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN
RECENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/11. THE STORM
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY TOMORROW AS IT BECOMES MORE STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THE BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFERENCE IS IN HOW
MUCH IT SLOWS DOWN BY EITHER BECOMING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE
ITCZ...LIKE THE ECMWF FORECAST...OR STAYING SEPARATE...LIKE THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 16.3N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.6N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.7N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0600Z 16.6N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1800Z 16.4N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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