Hurricane MANUEL
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HURRICANE MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2013
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 11 26 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 1 16 33 28 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 72 66 41 31 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 27 16 16 15 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 26 14 13 12 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 3 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
LOS MOCHIS 34 23 17(40) 5(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
LOS MOCHIS 50 2 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
LOS MOCHIS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CULIACAN 34 29 7(36) 5(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
CULIACAN 50 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CULIACAN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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