Tropical Storm MANUEL

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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013
 
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS
ORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS
EARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...
SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.
 
MANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL
THEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.
 
STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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