Tropical Depression LORENA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013
ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF LORENA.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES. BARRING A SERIOUS COMEBACK IN THE CONVECTION...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY
STABLE AIR AND COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT
3 KT AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS LIKELY AS
THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION GETS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DISTANT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS
MADE TO EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A SURFACE TROUGH IN A DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 23.9N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 24.1N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 24.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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