Tropical Storm KIKO
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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO SEEMS TO HAVE HALTED TONIGHT.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A
TIGHT INNER CORE...BUT THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SYMMETRIC
WITH THE CENTER NOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEER OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 60
KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA.
KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE
26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AND COULD STILL BECOME HURRICANE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO LONGER EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE
UPDATED FOREAST. COOLER SSTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR
SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.
KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS
AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 010/6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE EASTERN
PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
KIKO GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN. AS A
RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED
TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 20.6N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BROWN
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