Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013
 
A 0407 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THIS
STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR
ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE
ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST
TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND A 0445Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE DEPRESSION
HAS ONLY A DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPART MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME...WHICH
SUGGESTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING THE
DEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD BUT STILL REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND
DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF
THE DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME. THEN AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...MOST
OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AND
A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY DAY 4 AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 18.8N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 19.5N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 21.3N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 21.3N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 20.9N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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