Tropical Depression NINE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013
 
ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION...AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAINS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND IT HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE CIRCULATION REACHES THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE
CYCLONE ABOVE 40 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
LONG TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330
DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS HEADING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 4 DAYS...BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND HAS GIVEN A LITTLE LESS WEIGHT TO THE GFS WHICH
SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE PENISULA.
 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN SURGING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 17.9N 112.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 18.7N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 26.0N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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