Hurricane HENRIETTE

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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013
 
HENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE EYE IS NO
LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A
BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A FASTER
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 3 AND 4 THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE LATEST TCVE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
PASSES FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B AT 1832Z AND 1926Z...RESPECTIVELY...
INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF HENRIETTE IS QUITE SMALL.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
NOW THAT HENRIETTE HAS CROSSED 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL ISSUE THE NEXT
ADVISORY. FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPA33 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3. FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO AND AWIPS
HEADER HFOTCDCP3.
 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 17.0N 140.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.6N 142.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 16.0N 144.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 15.0N 149.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 13.5N 162.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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