Tropical Depression GIL
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 10
HOURS OR SO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GIL. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ASSUMING
THAT THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS GIL CHANGING
LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 27C...AND WITHIN MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GIL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE SAME AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN LOW TO
MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...GIL WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 06/09Z ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 13.2N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 12.9N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 12.6N 141.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 12.6N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 12.8N 144.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z 13.5N 147.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 09/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 14.0N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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