Tropical Storm GIL
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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. GIL CONSISTS OF AN
IRREGULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVOID OF BANDING FEATURES WITH
LIMITED OUTFLOW. SINCE THE SATELLITE INTENISTY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN
TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY
HOSTILE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL BEGIN TO
APPROACH COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.
THE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES
EARLIER...BUT WITH THE HELP OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...WE HAVE
DETERMINED THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE VERTICALLY
DISPLACED...BUT STILL EMBEDDED OR VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY LEAD TO AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GIL IS BEING STEERED BY A
WELL-ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW...AND SINCE THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT
FORECAST TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE
WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 14.6N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.7N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 14.7N 133.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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