Hurricane ERICK

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
...ERICK PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.3N 105.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. ERICK IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE
PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK
COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.
ERICK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...
AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
105 MILES...165 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN...
COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
 
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