Tropical Storm ERICK
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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ERICK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING IN
BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND
0415 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A BIT TO 45 KT. ERICK IS ALREADY
OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 20C. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...
305/8. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ERICK WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS
MORNING. ONCE ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS
CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
BETTER-PERFORMING MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 21.3N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 110.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 25.2N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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