Tropical Storm ERICK
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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON HAS PERSISTED INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO WARM.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE
VARIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. THE
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. ERICK IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 20.8N 108.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BROWN
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