Tropical Storm ERICK

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TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013
 
ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK REMAINS VIGOROUS...THE CYCLONE
HAS LOST MOST OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENTLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE NEW NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND
ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR.  ERICK SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS.
 
THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 300/9.  A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
MODELS ON THIS ADVISORY CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
TREND BY BEING JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. 
AS ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN AND SLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EASTERN
PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 20.3N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 21.0N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 22.9N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 23.9N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
 
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