Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
 
THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING BANDING SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS...HOWEVER...SUGGESTED THAT THE
SYSTEM LACKED ANY INNER CORE FEATURES...WITH A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE
AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE INTENSITY
WILL STAY 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUGGEST IT WILL SOON BECOME A STORM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...310/9.  A WEAK
RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON THIS GENERAL
COURSE FOR THE DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXACTLY WHEN THE DEPRESSION MAKES THAT
TURN IS UNCERTAIN.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE
MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT
DIRECTION.  THE FORECAST CHANGE REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND A WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT IF A NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST CONTINUES.
 
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS LONG AS
THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.  CONDITIONS COULD GET MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM
MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THEN IT WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING
COOLER WATER.  THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE
LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 14.2N  99.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.0N 100.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 16.1N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 17.7N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 19.1N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  09/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
 
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