Tropical Storm DALILA
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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON...DALILA BARELY QUALIFIES
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT
AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS
DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DRY AIR AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EVEN
THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. DALIA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
DALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN DALIA AND
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECELERATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 17.3N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 17.3N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 17.5N 112.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 18.3N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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