Hurricane DALILA
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HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013
THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF DALILA. A
COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL EYE...AND A FAINT
EYE IS SEEN IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. BASED ON
THESE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. BASED ON THE
NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO
AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR AND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.
THE CENTER POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A
LITTLE. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1800Z 18.3N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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