Tropical Depression THREE-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013
 
THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE
SOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER.  ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT...
SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  ALMOST ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS.  THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS
PROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT
FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER
WATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
BY ABOUT 120 H.
 
THE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A
BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY
TOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
HAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD
ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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