Tropical Storm KAREN

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TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN
FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N  90.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N  90.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.9N  90.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.9N  90.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.8N  89.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.9N  87.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.0N  82.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N  90.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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