Tropical Depression TEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2013
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 4 9 11 15 21 39
TROP DEPRESSION 32 25 30 24 23 10 30
TROPICAL STORM 67 67 56 56 50 55 28
HURRICANE 1 4 5 9 12 13 3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 4 4 8 10 12 3
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 X
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 30KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 3(22)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 4(25)
LA PESCO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 12(15) 10(25) 2(27)
TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
TUXPAN MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 7(26) 1(27)
TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
VERACRUZ MX 34 3 12(15) 7(22) 9(31) 5(36) 2(38) 1(39)
VERACRUZ MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
FRONTERA MX 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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