Tropical Storm DORIAN

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TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DORIAN IS
RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA
INDICATE THAT DORIAN WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND THIS...ALONG WITH MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. 
THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE FLORIDA
STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 17.7N  43.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 18.1N  46.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 18.7N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 19.2N  54.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 19.7N  58.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1200Z 20.2N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  30/1200Z 20.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  31/1200Z 21.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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