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Tropical Storm CHANTAL


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013               
0900 UTC WED JUL 10 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1      10      15      19      26      29      38
TROP DEPRESSION 31      49      45      41      36      31      31
TROPICAL STORM  67      40      38      37      36      37      29
HURRICANE        1       1       2       2       2       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       1       2       2       2       3       2
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    30KT    30KT    30KT    30KT    35KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   2(12)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   1(15)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   1(16)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   1(17)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1  15(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
LES CAYES      34  5  11(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 25  11(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 
CAPE BEATA     34 47   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
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